When counterfactuals are hidden and histories alternative

As Australia sets to emerge from this once-in-a-century pandemic, some of us do wonder was it all worth it? If COVID-19 was not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did?

May 12, 2020

As Australia sets to emerge from this once-in-a-century pandemic, some of us do wonder was it all worth it? If COVID-19 was not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did?

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Australia’s ability to “flatten the curve” amidst this once-in-a-century pandemic appears extraordinary. Against numerous epidemiological forecasts of a healthcare calamity, including overflowing ICUs and thousands of deaths, it appears the spread of COVID-19 has been largely contained. The economic cost, however, has been extraordinarily large and continues to grow. The true unemployment rate may already be in the double-digits and many tens of thousands of small businesses will likely close when all is said and done.

Some are asking was it all worth it? If COVID-19 was not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did?

Read the full article on Montaka's website here.

Andrew Macken is a 2019 Conference Fund Manager

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May 12, 2020

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Andrew Macken

,

Montaka

Australia’s ability to “flatten the curve” amidst this once-in-a-century pandemic appears extraordinary. Against numerous epidemiological forecasts of a healthcare calamity, including overflowing ICUs and thousands of deaths, it appears the spread of COVID-19 has been largely contained. The economic cost, however, has been extraordinarily large and continues to grow. The true unemployment rate may already be in the double-digits and many tens of thousands of small businesses will likely close when all is said and done.

Some are asking was it all worth it? If COVID-19 was not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did?

Read the full article on Montaka's website here.

Andrew Macken is a 2019 Conference Fund Manager

Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by Montaka, published on May 12, 2020. HM1 is not responsible for the content of linked websites or content prepared by third party. The inclusion of these links and third-party content does not in any way imply any form of endorsement by HM1 of the products or services provided by persons or organisations who are responsible for the linked websites and third-party content. This information is for general information only and does not consider the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before making an investment decision, you should read the relevant disclosure document (if appropriate) and seek professional advice to determine whether the investment and information is suitable for you.

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