Last Friday we witnessed what could best be described as the Hunger Games of stock-picking. Eleven rock stars of international and local funds management took to stage – each tasked with picking and pitching one company whose shares will take off over the next year.
Each had eight minutes to explain to an audience dotted with billionaires and a who’s who of financial services why their picks are likely to shoot the lights out. It was the sharemarket equivalent of speed-dating.
Just how good the predictions end up being will become clear in a year, when the Sohn Hearts and Minds event returns. While stock-picking isn’t an exact science, there is a blend of instinct and analysis, art and science that goes behind every decision.
Experts don’t necessarily look for wonderful business; instead they strive to nominate one whose share price (for myriad reasons) is primed to move into hyperdrive in the next 12 months. There’s no long-term crystal-gazing here – just a narrow frame of time to deliver outsized returns as they seek out a stock backed by fundamentals, not hype.
Last year’s champion performer was IMF Investors’ Rikki Bannan – her punt on Telix Pharmaceuticals returned 147 per cent. Second and third place were taken out by Martin Hughes of Toscafund and Chris Kourtis of Ellerston, who punted on shares in an Italian bank, Unifund, and sleep apnoea treatment group ResMed respectively – both gained more than 60 per cent during the year.
Curiously, among the 11 picks for 2025, there are no AI, chipmakers or data centres in sight. While these trends were easily the hottest thing in international sharemarkets, stock-pickers are betting on a different assortment of companies to capture investor attention next year.
Bannan’s latest pick is Corporate Travel – a company that blotted its copybook by thrice missing profit expectations in recent times. It was something of a COVID-19 casualty that has fallen 36 per cent over the past 18 months. Her thesis rests on travel patterns continuing to normalise and the management’s cost-busting exercise combining to boost the company’s earnings.
Kourtis has employed a similar strategy in choosing Perpetual Investments. This is one company that shareholders have loved to hate, and the company’s share price has taken a hit this year as its management ploughed ahead with a series of unpopular and arguably overpriced acquisitions.
Kourtis, who took to the stage in a white coat and stethoscope, said Perpetual (which he referred to as the “patient”) was suffering from a “severe case of shareholder wealth destruction”.
Estee Lauder was nominated by Fleur Wright from Northcape Capital who thinks the international cosmetics giant will experience a renaissance after its failure to launch well in China led to its share price slumping 80 per cent. Her thesis sits around the size of the beauty business and the fact that skin and makeup products have moved from a discretionary to an essential item for women.
Elsewhere, Vihari Ross from fund management group Antipodes likes plane maker Airbus’ chances of soaring over the next 12 months. Not only does it operate in a duopoly, but Ross likes the fact that it will capitalise on the hiccups of its only rival, Boeing.
It will also enjoy a slow-burn gain against its rival thanks to the increasing popularity of the narrow-bodied aircraft it specialises in, and the latest revenue potential of air travel becoming more accessible for populations of emerging countries.
Staying with the aviation theme, Boston-based Jordan Katz from Advent Global Opportunities spruiked TransDigm Group, a manufacturer of various aerospace products including valves and seatbelts.
Unlike others, TransDigm’s shares are not clapped out, but Katz reckons its performance will continue to shine because it has cornered the market. He likened it to a “subscription service on steroids; when a company buys a plane from Boeing they’re entering into a 40-year subscription service with the aftermarket servicer”.
Alex Pollak, from disruptor fund manager Loftus Peak, strayed from the usual tech-based stocks to nominate Eli Lilly – manufacturer of diabetes and weight-loss management drugs. His thesis is that the market has yet to properly understand the huge addressable market and, therefore, revenue implications for this drug, given it can be used to help with a vast number of diseases and conditions, including heart disease.
Jeremy Bond, from Terra Capital, confesses to having something of a love affair with gold’s less glamorous cousin, silver. His big investment pick is silver miner Coeur, which has had its share of troubles recently, but has already started to rally, and Bond reckons there is more petrol in that tank.
From the US, Tekne Capital Management’s Beeneet Kothari pitched Chinese ride-share operator DiDi Global – an edgy pick given it doesn’t trade on a major stock exchange. But he expects it to relist on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange soon and experience a much-needed re-rating.
Another pick on China came from Samir Mehta, from J O Hambro Capital Management, who likes the sound of Tencent Music. This Chinese group, 52 per cent owned by Tencent, is returning money to shareholders and growing at the same time – not something you see a lot of from Chinese companies.
Mehta says that the company has bought back $US1 billion ($1.55 billion) of stock and is buying back another $US500 million.
Ricky Sandler, from US-based Eminence Capital, picked Spanish telecommunications infrastructure operator Cellnex, likening the company’s 100,000-odd cell tower assets to perpetual bonds. Having experienced a pretty flat share price for a few years, Sandler expects this to radically change, suggesting it could double over the next two years.
Meanwhile, Nasdaq-listed software operator Blackline was nominated by Sumit Gautam, of Scalar Gauge Fund, as his mover-and-shaker stock thanks to its high quality and growing margins.
Including airline manufacturing, silver miners, cosmetics, ride-sharing, big pharma and cell towers, the 11 picks range from international brands to local companies. While there are a few mega-caps on the list, there are also stocks many would never have heard of.
There’s no particular big bang theme either, other than that these stocks are broadly underappreciated by investors and ripe for a potential revival or a significant re-rating.
The author and Alex Pollack are married, and the author’s superannuation fund holds shares in Eli Lilly.
This article was originally posted by The Sydney Morning Herald here.
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